期貨市場:
日膠市場受到日元貶值提振早盤大幅高開,全體基本震蕩走高,日盤收盤于322.7日元,漲9.6點,漲幅3.07%。滬膠市場昨日大跌之后今日反彈修正,早盤小幅高開后全體維持震蕩走勢,直至尾盤被拉升走高,主力1009最終報收于24735元,漲200點,漲幅0.82%。
現貨市場:
泰國合艾橡膠原料交易市場收購價格生膠片報114.58泰銖/公斤,漲1.92;膠水無報價;煙片報121.27泰銖/公斤,漲3.02。干膠現貨方面,國內市場報價較為混亂,市場心態分歧明顯,一方面陸續有低價報出,另一方面貿易商依舊堅持看好心態,價格高企;美元膠市場多跌,幅度多在10-30,印尼膠幅度略大;青島保稅區現貨報價多跌20美金,市場心態觀望為主,成交清淡。今日乳膠現貨和外盤報價穩定,期貨進入震蕩軌道,原料高企仍對現貨形成支撐,國內外產區開割,供應增多預期下下游觀望情緒濃厚,出貨較為困難。今日三大墾區濃縮乳膠掛單688噸,成交10噸;全乳膠掛單820噸,成交303噸;10#標膠掛單40噸,無成交;5#凝標掛單21噸,成交21噸,5#標膠掛單60噸,無成交。
焦點回顧:ANRPC 修正2009年泰國等天膠產量
ANRPC 最近季報數據:上調2009年泰國等天膠產量;修正泰國產量為308.6萬噸,僅比2008年減少0.1%。
Year
|
Brazil
|
Guatemala
|
Other
Latin
America
(a) |
Cameroon
|
Côte d''
Ivoire
|
Ghana
|
Gabon
|
Guinea
|
Liberia
|
Nigeria
|
2002 |
89.0 |
48.0 |
28.0 |
57.0 |
120.0 |
8.8 |
0.4 |
8.5 |
109.0 |
42.0 |
2003 |
94.0 |
49.0 |
29.0 |
59.0 |
127.0 |
9.2 |
1.0 |
10.0 |
107.0 |
38.0 |
2004 |
101.4 |
60.4 |
29.0 |
54.0 |
143.0 |
9.3 |
1.5 |
9.0 |
114.5 |
45.0 |
2005 |
106.5 |
64.0 |
29.0 |
57.0 |
165.2 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
111.0 |
40.0 |
2006 |
107.8 |
65.4 |
29.0 |
62.0 |
178.3 |
10.5 |
12.0 |
10.5 |
100.5 |
41.0 |
2007 |
115.7 |
78.7 |
33.5 |
61.5 |
183.0 |
11.0 |
20.0 |
13.5 |
105.5 |
42.0 |
2008 |
123.1 |
83.0 |
40.6 |
63.5 |
194.2 |
13.5 |
19.4 |
13.9 |
81.0 |
49.0 |
2009 |
104.0 |
80.5 |
43.3 |
64.1 |
205.8 |
14.5 |
18.0 |
15.1 |
77.3 |
45.0 |
% change on previous year |
-15.5% |
-3.0% |
6.8% |
0.9% |
6.0% |
7.4% |
-7.3% |
8.6% |
-4.5% |
-8.2% |
Year
|
D.R. of
Congo
(b) |
Other
Africa
|
Bangla
-desh
(d) |
Cambodia
|
China
|
India
|
Indonesia
|
2002 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
32.4 |
527.0 |
640.8 |
1630.0 |
2003 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
32.4 |
565.0 |
707.1 |
1792.2 |
2004 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
33.8 |
573.0 |
742.6 |
2066.2 |
2005 |
7.5 |
1.0 |
5.2 |
29.5 |
510.0 |
771.5 |
2271.0 |
2006 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
5.3 |
32.1 |
533.0 |
853.3 |
2637.0 |
2007 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
12.3 |
33.0 |
590.0 |
811.1 |
2755.2 |
2008 |
8.0 |
1.0 |
14.6 |
37.1 |
560.0 |
881.3 |
2751.0 |
2009 |
8.1 |
1.7 |
17.3 |
45.3 |
630.0 |
817.0 |
2534.6 |
% change on previous year |
1.3% |
76.8% |
18.5% |
22.2% |
12.5% |
-7.3% |
-7.9% |
Year
|
Malaysia
|
Myanmar
|
Papua
New
Guinea
|
Philip
-pines
|
Sri
Lanka
|
Thailand
|
Vietnam
|
WORLD
GRAND
TOTAL
(a) |
2002 |
889.8 |
39.7 |
4.2 |
76.0 |
90.5 |
2615.1 |
331.4 |
7326 |
2003 |
985.6 |
39.9 |
4.1 |
84.0 |
92.0 |
2876.0 |
363.5 |
8020 |
2004 |
1168.7 |
52.3 |
4.6 |
80.0 |
94.7 |
2984.3 |
419.0 |
8746 |
2005 |
1126.0 |
64.2 |
4.7 |
78.5 |
104.4 |
2937.2 |
481.6 |
8904 |
2006 |
1283.6 |
73.4 |
4.5 |
75.2 |
109.2 |
3137.0 |
555.4 |
9791 |
2007 |
1199.6 |
81.0 |
4.8 |
93.0 |
117.5 |
3056.0 |
605.8 |
9801 |
2008 |
1072.4 |
76.5 |
4.8 |
94.9 |
129.2 |
3089.8 |
659.6 |
10031 |
2009 |
856.2 |
73.6 |
5.0 |
87.3 |
133.4 |
3086.0 |
723.7 |
9602 |
% change on previous year |
-20.2% |
-3.8% |
4.2% |
-8.0% |
3.3% |
-0.1% |
9.7% |
-4.3% |
明日展望:
今日滬膠超跌后的反彈并不代表膠價的觸底回升,建議不要樂觀追高。目前空方消息仍不斷出現,市場中期調整信號愈來加強,商品市場將進入調整階段。